Artist: Elisabeth Woolley Monod
Artist: Elisabeth Woolley Monod
Can you guess what question we get asked the most?
“What’s happening in the Canmore real estate market?”
2024 real estate market predictions have been coming in fast and furious from all levels; we’ve been watching provincial to national economic predictions and trends, to reviewing on-the-ground stats and analysis of the last year. Some reports are written with rose-colored glasses, others more focused on inflation, the national housing crisis, and the array of other global economic disrupters that have been plaguing our economy since the pandemic ... pun intended.
As for Canmore, you must remember that the entire Bow Valley real estate market is TINY.
A lot of the commercial sector doesn’t even make the public market and a lot of the bigger trends are out of context here, or don’t apply at all.
A lot of the commercial sector doesn’t even make the public market and a lot of the bigger trends are out of context here, or don’t apply at all.
We’re a just little dot on the map. It’s so small we can literally watch the inventory and prices move day by day, sale by sale.
Every phone call and inquiry becomes a new market indicator.
For some perspective, in 2023, Calgary reached nearly 28,000 sales, as compared to Canmore’s 460 sales with a total sales volume of ~$467M.
Valley-wide the numbers landed at 537 sales totaling ~$529M, averaging just 55 days on market.
Valley-wide the numbers landed at 537 sales totaling ~$529M, averaging just 55 days on market.
You don’t even need a calculator to calculate Canmore’s average residential sale price of $1,006,551, a shocking number as compared to Alberta’s average of $455,290; the single detached home category shows even more disparity with Canmore’s average single-family average clocking in at $1,728,204, to Alberta’s average of $537,373.
2023 Sales History (Source: Pillar 9):
Single Family | 74 | $1,728,204
Duplex | 31 | 1,538,021
Row/Townhouses | 115 | $1,008,440
Apartments | 229 | $700,712
Land | 4 | $1,372,187
Commercial | 7 | $1,087,646
Overall Average $1,010,946
Total Sales: 460
It all starts with inventory...
The current number of listings sits at about half the pre-pandemic supply numbers with Canmore sitting at 129 listings across all sectors; with just 141 listings Valley-wide. We haven’t seen inventory this low since January 2022, which bottomed out at 101 for Canmore, and 141 total listings for the region.
For the majority of 2023, the listing inventory Canmore-wide was hovering between 150 and 180 but has been fluctuating between 125 and 150 most recently. We’ve got more Realtors than properties at this point …
It will be interesting to see where 2024 takes us and if the historically much-anticipated spring market brings more inventory, or not; but even if it does, the trend remains that overall inventory has been shrinking year over year and demand remains high, pushing prices to some of the highest averages in the country.
Although inflation and higher interest rates have had some effect on market cooling, the average prices in the Valley are well above average and generally appeal to a more insulated demographic. Unfortunately, almost all types of housing below $600,000 cease to exist in Canmore. This has affected our market immensely, with decades-old housing shortages finally coming to a head, just like everywhere else. It's also why we have started a community land trust, Canmoreland CLT.
How does Tourism and Recreation play into things?
Tourism and recreation are heavy traffic drivers to the region. One positive trend emerging over the last few recovery years is that the local peak season and visiting demographic has expanded significantly. Most small businesses are now reporting strong visitation and sales starting mid-February, going into late October when previously, the peak season was best defined as “May Long to September Long”. It might be a surprise to learn that despite the world-class skiing and winter sport offerings (and the super-short summer season), winter remains the slow season of the region.Although lacking the official designation that would allocate a larger share of the provincial tourism revenues generated by the area (into the $Bs), Canmore is often lumped in with other real estate Resort Destinations, most recently being named in Royal LePage’s Winter Recreational market report, alongside markets such as Whistler, Revelstoke, Big White, Sun Peaks, and others.
Most people don’t realize that many of the hotel accommodations available here are individually owned and titled, even if they may look like a standard hotel room. These properties can operate (legally) under various short-term revenue-generating models, appealing to all sorts of investors.
This unique hotel condo/investment property sector accounts for about one-third of the Valley’s 2023 market activity. Of the 229 apartments logged in the 2023 stats, upon further dissection of our database, 153 were from the investment sector. It’s worth noting that recreational properties do not have their own sub-category so many published Canmore area stats are a bit skewed.
From the finance world:
The years of continuous rate changes and inflation have kept everyone dizzy, but lower interest rate promises are on the horizon for Q3/Q4 for both the residential and commercial sectors, however, the market is still dealing with the long-standing supply and demand issues, with no end in sight.
As discussed in our January 2024 Newsletter, real estate is a major economic churner and the market continues, no matter – so reaching one’s real estate goals all depends on who you are and what you’re trying to achieve, in the moment.
Intimate market knowledge is key to understanding the inner workings of the Canmore market. It’s tricky, it’s fast, it’s expensive, there’s LOTS to know, and it’s not for everyone – however – we are here to bring you up to speed and give you strategic advice specific to you, your situation, and where the market is today.
It’s why working with real-time data is our specialty and it’s how we’ve managed to help a lot of our clients achieve their goals in every type of market. So, when people ask us “What's the market doing?”, our reply is often along the lines of, “Who are you? and What are you trying to achieve?” … from there, we dive into the context and come up with a strategy for what’s possible.
Reach out anytime.
Ryan (and Donna)